Election 2020: The Red Mirage Theory

The 2020 presidential election is going to be here before we know it. After months of keeping up with headlines, polls, and speculation, we are only weeks away from officially casting our votes on November 3rd. Many, including myself, plan to vote early to remain safe from the mishandled coronavirus pandemic which is still spreading rapidly. Recently, Donald Trump’s campaign rhetoric has implied that the upcoming election will be the most fraudulent in the country’s history. These unsubstantiated claims paired with what will likely be a record amount of absentee ballots cast have led me and others to speculate on how election night will look, and spoiler alert: it could get ugly. In this post, I’m going to describe the “Red Mirage Theory” and what it could mean for the country post-election.

It’s simple, really. Come election day, the ballots cast by in-person voters on November 3rd will immediately be processed and tallied. Absentee ballots, which are still eligible if they are addressed by election day but not received yet, will likely require days to be manually added to the popular vote count. Recent polling has shown that registered and likely Democratic voters are significantly more likely to cast absentee or early votes than their Republican counterparts who highly downplay or disregard the pandemic in large part to Trump’s admitted lies regarding its severity. Trump, who is desperately looking for an excuse to call foul play, may appear to be winning handily on election night, but in reality, will be losing according to absentee ballots and recent favorable national and state polling for Joe Biden. The theory is that if Donald Trump is falsely perceived to be winning on November 3rd, hence the “Red Mirage” theory name, he will declare victory and claim fraud if and when Joe Biden overcomes him in the electoral college as mail-in votes are counted. This would not be good.

Donald Trump’s rhetoric has incited violence in the past, and if this scenario were to take place, I imagine it would lead to significant violence yet again. What’s equally terrifying is the notion that Trump could go state-by-state and insist judges, who he has appointed, determine the path forward in counting incoming votes in the following days after the election. If judges in swing states such as Wisconsin, Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina rule in Trump’s favor, similarly to how Florida judges ruled in George W. Bush’s favor in 2000, he could steal an election he was never supposed to win, and civil unrest would be at an all-time high.

I don’t like to read too much into the “what-ifs” which are completely out of my control, but I see the validity of this theory. Hopefully Joe Biden wins in such a popular and electoral landslide that none of this comes to fruition, but I wouldn’t be surprised if election “night” turns into election “week” or even “month” as the results are tabulated. I would, however, rather wait for correct results than immediately receive false ones. What’s important is that we get out and vote. To make sure you’re registered, use the link below. Thanks for reading.

VOTE: https://www.usa.gov/register-to-vote

For The Record: A Vinyl Series (Part 1)

What’s old is new again. The cyclical nature of pop culture, style, and social trends tends to occasionally repopularize relics of the past as new shiny objects of the future. Whether it’s chunky dad sneakers, polaroid cameras, or in my case record players and vinyl, anything which was once “in” is subject to come back in full force in due time. Before moving back into my downtown Atlanta apartment last month, I was given the early birthday gift I had been pining after for a very long time by my parents, which is a stellar bluetooth record player and accompanying booming speakers. My propensity and tendency to collect things has predictably bled into this new area, as I’ve been playing catch-up by purchasing my favorite albums on vinyl over the past few weeks. In this series, similar to my “Best Foot Forward” series, I will be highlighting and discussing various selections from my collection in each installment. Who doesn’t like a little bit of show-and-tell? Let’s get into it.

Record 1 (Upper Left): Fetch The Bolt Cutters - Fiona Apple

It feels appropriate to feature this album first on this series because it was the first record in my collection. Fiona Apple rightfully received huge critical acclaim after the release of this project in April. Since then, it has slowly become my favorite album of the year so far. Sonically and thematically, Apple is able to capture the essence of tension associated with the unstable state of affairs in the country. This two-sided double LP sounds fantastic on vinyl, as the multi-instrumental tracks allow each layer to shine, all while being complemented by Apple’s haunting vocals. Great album, and one I’m glad to have in my record collection.

Record 2 (Upper Right): To Pimp A Butterfly - Kendrick Lamar

Kendrick Lamar’s 2015 magnum opus To Pimp A Butterfly is one of my favorite albums of all-time. This project is able to tackle immensely complicated topics such as self love, systemic racism, generational inequality, and Black identity simultaneously, all while fitting into a genius narrative and providing hit after hit. This project has a vintage and nostalgic feel even when not on vinyl, but this sense is amplified (quite literally) when the record is spinning under the needle. This was a must to add to my collection.

Record 3 (Lower Left): The Money Store - Death Grips

One of the most experimental and trend-setting albums of the 2010s, The Money Store influenced countless artists after its release. Abrasive, aggressive, but catchy at the same time, Death Grips provide an aesthetic here so unique that I can’t accurately compare it to any other album I’ve ever listened to. My Edifier speakers handle the sometimes obnoxious and sound-heavy moments on this record beautifully. I’m happy to have this album in my collection, and will likely be picking up Bottomless Pit soon, too.

Record 4 (Lower Right): Pure Comedy - Father John Misty

It wouldn’t be right to own a record player and not have my favorite album of all-time on vinyl to spin on it. This limited-edition and exclusive red marble pressing looks absolutely stunning, and the sound quality is fantastic, adding another dimension to an album which I never imagined could become deeper and more meaningful to me. This is likely going to be the album I play the most on vinyl since it’s the one I played most on streaming. If you haven’t listened to this project yet, stop reading. Go now. Listen. Do it!

I think I’m a collector by nature. Whether it’s clothes, sneakers, video games, or records, when I start getting into something, I’m quick down the rabbit hole. It has been fun exploring record stores like Criminal Records in downtown Atlanta as I learn more about vinyl and continue to add my favorite albums to the collection. Have you ever owned a record player? Thanks for reading.

2020 Presidential Election Map Prediction As Of September

We are now a mere two months away from the most impactful presidential election of our lifetimes, and debatably in American history. The ramifications this election will have are going to directly impact generations not only domestically, but all around the world. Recent polling has shown that the race is tightening up slightly, but this was to be expected as we neared closer to election day. Donald Trump’s favorability continues to poll miserably, but the nationwide gap between him and Joe Biden has shrunk slightly, sitting at +7.0 for Biden according to FiveThirtyEight, who still give him a 69% chance of winning the election. In this post, I’m going to forecast how I think things would go down if the election were held today. Let’s jump into it.

The states we can classify as solidly Democratic or Republican leaning haven’t changed and won’t change much leading up to November 3rd. States like California, Illinois, New York, Wyoming, Mississippi, and Alabama, for example, are almost guaranteed to go to their respective preferred candidates. The likely states, such as Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, Montana, Utah, and Missouri haven’t changed much, either, demonstrating the polarization and steadfast voting habits of some states in the country. Things do get interesting, however, when we look at the lean and tilt classifications, which actually have changed slightly in Donald Trump’s favor after recent events such as the Republican National Convention and unrest after the police shooting of Jacob Blake and the ensuing protests and riots in Kenosha, Wisconsin.

Whether moral and logical or not, the disruption and uncertainty related to the protests and riots in Kenosha, Wisconsin have led the state’s recent polls to tighten up somewhat significantly. I only feel comfortable categorizing Wisconsin as a tilt state which I believe would go to Joe Biden if the election were held today, but it’s going to be interesting to watch this state as the election approaches. Similarly, polls in the state of Arizona have tightened significantly, allowing me to only classify this state in the tilt category for Joe Biden and the Democratic Party. This rightward slide of recent polls is reflected in other tilt states as well, such as Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia, all which have started to move right in the aggregate. Joe Biden’s camp and supporters shouldn’t panic yet, as they still maintain a fairly sizable lead in the Midwest and particularly the Rust Belt, which would be enough to win the election if nothing else changed from 2016’s electoral map, but it’s too early to take the foot off of the gas pedal, especially when considering the circumstances we find ourselves in nationally. Racial tension, COVID-19, the economy, and the upcoming Presidential and Vice Presidential debates will likely have a significant impact on the direction of the race as we approach November 3rd.

We knew polls were going to tighten when Joe Biden was dominating Donald Trump earlier this summer. Now that it’s September, it’s likely that the race is going to continue to evolve and change as new headlines and developments find their ways into our lives, as 2020 has proven time and time again already. If the election were held today, I predict Joe Biden would win with 290 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 248, the closest prediction I’ve made so far. Who do you think is going to win the presidency? Thanks for reading.

DNC & RNC Repap

We’re nearing closer and closer to the 2020 presidential election with each passing day. With the increased racial tensions, rampant pandemic, and systemic inequality in the United States, along with two diametrically opposed candidates on the ballot, one could make the case that this election is the most important in our lifetimes. Despite one-sided adherence to social distancing guidelines and protocols, both the Democratic and Republican National Conventions took place over the past two weeks, and the difference in substance, tone, and messaging reflected how vastly opposed these two parties truly are.

Since the DNC came first, I’ll reflect on it first. If I’m completely honest, I was slightly underwhelmed by the event’s opening night. I understand that as a progressive I’m not the target voter the DNC was trying to interest, but I found the opening night disappointing nonetheless. As the event went along and more notable speakers began making appearances, I was reassured and excited about what was transpiring. Michelle Obama, Dr. Jill Biden, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Barack Obama, Kamala Harris, and Joe Biden all gave rhetorically-skilled and substantive speeches over the course of the four-night event. Instead of only offering opposition to Donald Trump, the DNC was able to fully convey the Democratic party’s 2020 platform, which is one full of policies (such as healthcare expansion, police reform, etc.) and ideologies (unity, strength, etc.) which appeal to an array of voters in the Democratic base. There’s only so much that can be done in a socially-distant and largely digital platform, but I felt that by the end of the DNC, the Democratic Party made its message clear, and I’m still excited to vote for Biden / Harris come November 3rd.

The RNC, on the other hand, was a nightmare. What could be considered a Trump family reunion featuring the occasion lunatic guest speaker demonstrated the vitriolic hatred and angst which makes up the modern day Republican Party. From Kimberly Guilfoyle shouting her way through a completely nonsensical speech to Charlie Kirk spreading the same sort of misinformation he does regularly on Twitter, the smaller speakers were absolutely atrocious during this event. The main event speeches such as Melania Trump and Mike Pence weren’t much better, simply droning on and offering no real case as to why voters should choose Donald Trump this time around. To cap things off was Donald Trump’s White House speech which was appalling by all standards. Using the White House as a political prop was an unprecedented and despicable move, and the fact that the audience of over 1,000 people was not socially distanced, masked, or tested speaks volumes as to how Trump views this pandemic as unserious. Trump’s final speech was riddled with lies and misleading claims, and by the end of the event, even the audience didn’t seem to understand his messaging. I would describe the RNC as embarrassing and troublesome for a variety of reasons.

In two days it will be September, which will mean we will be two months away from this year’s historic election. The Democratic and Republican National Conventions highlighted once again how distinctly opposed these two parties’ platforms are, and likely won’t affect the polls too severely in the coming weeks. That’s a story for another day, though, as it seems Donald Trump is coming back in polling as Joe Biden’s lead continues to shrink. What did you think of the conventions this year? Let me know. Thanks for reading.

New Music Round-Up (Father John Misty, Drake, And More)

As you know by now, I enjoy writing about music very much. Whether I’m reviewing a new release, discussing my favorite albums of all-time, or talking about which artists I think you should look out for moving forward, music has become one of the central topics for this blog. In the past weeks, my schedule has been turned upside down as I’ve been packing for and moving into my apartment as my senior year of college nears. During this time, there have been some noteworthy releases which I’ve wanted to comment on but just haven’t had the time. Until today, that is. Let’s talk about some of the best and worst singles which have released recently.

Father John Misty - “To S.” and “To. R”

Since the release of God’s Favorite Customer in 2018, Josh Tillman’s fans have been desperately awaiting a new release from their favorite cynical indie folk artist. His live collection Off-Key in Hamburg and his covers EP Anthem +3 held me over slightly, but I was still looking forward to original work from Tillman. To contribute to the Sub Pop Singles Club, Tillman released two mysteriously titled singles which live up to his sound which we’ve come to know and love. “To S.” offers an empathetic message backed by a gentle string arrangement, and “To R.” mirrors this track in many ways. The lyrics on this track are slightly more ambiguous than is to my liking, but overall, these are satisfactory tracks from Mr. Tillman which will continue to hold me over until his next LP, which is hopefully coming sooner rather than later. SCORE: 7/10

Drake - “Laugh Now, Cry Later (feat. Lil Durk)”

It’s hard not to like Drake. While I’ve been very critical of his few most recent full-length album releases, it’s almost impossible to imagine the hip-hop and pop genres without Drake’s presence. Known for being able to release hit after hit, Drake has ascended to a level of popularity rivaled by very few in today’s musical scene, and it feels like he’s starting to grasp that fact. The accompanying music video for this single made me laugh out loud when I first watched it. Drake seems fully aware of his meme status, providing a solid single riddled with parody-like moments throughout. The Lil Durk feature here is brief and forgettable, but overall, I just have to respect Drake’s ability to continue his lore as an artist. SCORE: 5/10

Cardi B. & Megan Thee Stallion - “WAP”

When Nicki Minaj released her single and music video “Anaconda” in 2014, the internet went wild. While many of Minaj’s fans applauded her confidence and female empowerment perspective, others condemned her behavior despite their inability to criticize male artists who discuss the same subject matter regularly with little backlash. Unfortunately, six years later in 2020, not much has changed, and the reactionary gatekeepers of the internet are just as present and vocal as they were years ago. Here’s the deal: “WAP” is a fantastic track. Despite the fact that its clean version is still likely too dirty to be played on the radio, the unabashed feminist confidence from both Cardi B. and Megan Thee Stallion is simply inspiring. The track is a fun and memorable listen, and the music video released alongside this smash hit only emphasizes the statement of empowerment it makes. Great stuff. SCORE: 8/10

Billie Eilish - “my future”

It’s hard to believe that Billie Eilish nearly swept the Grammys following her 2019 release WHEN WE ALL FALL ASLEEP, WHERE DO WE GO? earlier this year. The singles she has released since then have been massive hits which I’ve enjoyed thoroughly, particularly “everything i wanted”. On “my future”, we find Eilish singing from a more positive and optimistic perspective than ever before. After the reflections on such dark topics from her first album, its nice to hear Eilish sing from a better place over such an uplifting and catchy single. To add to this song, Billie’s performance at the DNC earlier this week was fantastic. Can’t help but continue to fanboy over Billie Eilish. SCORE: 7/10

Miley Cyrus - “Midnight Sky”

It’s unfortunate that Miley Cyrus has become such a polarizing figure and artist, particularly on the internet. While I haven’t enjoyed much of the music she’s released recently, I respect her artistic vision and willingness to discuss sometimes taboo topics so openly and honestly. Luckily, this 80s throwback “Midnight Sky” instills confidence in me that Cyrus will continue to develop personally and artistically, and that a new era could be around the corner for her. This is a solid single with huge radio potential and a killer self-directed music video, and I highly suggest you check it out. SCORE: 7/10

So there we have it: some of the biggest singles and tracks released in the past weeks have finally been discussed here on the blog. I’m hoping for new album releases soon, as I’m finally settling into my apartment, which includes my new speakers and record player which will be used regularly. Which of these tracks is your favorite? What kind of music have you been listening to recently? Let me know. Thanks for reading.