2020 Presidential Election Map Prediction As Of October

In a normal election year cycle, one or two “October surprises” could be anticipated. Usually taking the form of unexpected news stories or revelations, these surprises can actually have an impact in states where the final popular vote count is close. This year’s election cycle, however, just like the rest of 2020, is the exact opposite of normal. One week into October and we have already found out about Donald Trump’s tax return bombshell, along with the President becoming a coronavirus super spreader who is infecting the entire White House with his irresponsibility. With less than a month to go until the last day of the election, national and statewide polling is looking promising for Joe Biden’s chances. This, of course, doesn’t mean we should become complacent or comfortable; things can change quickly. We should instead use these indicators as motivation to get out and vote if we haven’t already. In this post, I’ll be predicting the 2020 presidential election map, which is something I’ll only do once more before election day. Let’s get into it.

With time dwindling down before election day, prediction forecasts are starting to become more decisive in their projections. FiveThirtyEight, for example, calls Joe Biden a “favorite” to defeat Donald Trump, currently giving him an 84% chance of doing so. Largely, this is because the states where the popular vote margin will be high are solidifying more by the day, especially since the president caught the coronavirus. What’s interesting is that, according to my predictions, Joe Biden’s “safe” states like California, Illinois, and New York among others guarantee him 183 electoral votes, while Trump’s safe states like Wyoming, South Dakota, and Utah among others only guarantee him 94 electoral votes. This disparity in given states puts Joe Biden at a big advantage, needing to win less battleground states in order to win electorally than Donald Trump.

Even some states that were Republican strongholds for decades such as Georgia and Texas are up for grabs in this year’s election. Whether this is because of changing demographics, our current political circumstances, or some combination of both, it’s undeniable that these states will likely be closer than they have been in a long time. As a Georgia voter who has already sent off his absentee ballot, I’d love to see my state go blue, but with past incidences of voter suppression and low turnout in key demographics, I’m currently predicting a Trump win both here and in Texas. Biden doesn’t need these states like Trump does, though, so making them a problem area for the Trump campaign, especially in regard to campaign finance, bodes well for Biden and company.

What was considered for years a “blue wall” or Democratically leaning voters decided against their norm and helped elect Donald Trump in 2016. There are many reasons why this happened, but I don’t see it happening again in 2020. Biden’s ties to the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania would likely seal the election for him if it were held today, and likely will in November if nothing changes. Those states, along with Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, and others which were formally either red or swing states that are now turning purple or blue, pad Biden’s lead comfortably.

If the election were held today, I believe Joe Biden would comfortably become the next president of the United States, winning 319-219. I’m sure that Donald Trump’s fascistic tendencies of questioning the reliability of voting by mail will only worsen as the election nears, but we’ll cross (and burn) that bridge when we get to it. In the meantime, it’s important to stay safe, informed, and active by voting, keeping up with the news, and listening to the scientific community. Thanks for reading, and enjoy tonight’s vice presidential debate.

Presidential Debate (09/29/2020) Analysis

The 2020 election is underway. As tens of thousands send in their absentee ballots or prepare to vote early in-person, many are waiting until November 3rd to cast their ballots to decide the next president. While the country is historically partisan and divided, there are still some who are undecided as to who they will vote for, if anyone. Last night, as I’m sure you know, President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden met onstage for the first time to debate the many issues which the next president will need to address. These included the pandemic, race relations, and climate change among others. Unfortunately, the debate quickly went downhill, eventually highlighting the most divisive and toxic elements of the current political landscape. Verifiable lies, name-calling, and interrupting were consistent throughout the event, none of which were addressed by moderator Chris Wallace in any real way. While I believe Joe Biden “won” last night’s debate, if we can even call it one, I more so believe that America lost last night.

Historically, presidential debates are respectable and substantive conversations from each party’s nominated candidate that allow the American people to assess the policies, judgements, and personalities of said candidates. In a country as divided and damaged as the one we are living in now, however, most of the general electorate is aware of both Trump and Biden, and as polling reflects, they’ve already made their minds up. Very few supporters of either nominee were either encouraged or dissuaded from their candidate of choice last night, but instead ended the evening exhausted from the verbal cage-match they had just witnessed.

In a night full of nightmarish moments, there are a few that stand out in particular. Firstly, Donald Trump simply won’t admit that he has underpaid his federal income taxes over the past decades, but is simultaneously claiming that taking advantage of tax loopholes makes him smart. I would counter, however, that this admission is electorally numb-skulled, as Trump is revealing he has no desire to personally help fund the military, schools, police, hospitals, or roads among countless other services and facilities - not very American if you ask me. Another moment which stood out was the sheer hypocrisy displayed by Trump in defending his choice to nominate and potentially fill Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s Supreme Court seat while the election is already taking place. I thought that Biden should have attacked this moment more pointedly by highlighting how Republicans stalled on Barack Obama’s nomination of Merrick Garland in his final term in office. Additionally, I found it disgusting when Donald Trump impugned Joe Biden’s son Hunter who has openly overcome a cocaine addiction, all while acting dismissive when discussing Biden’s late son Beau.

But that’s not the worst of it. The Trump presidency stooped to an all-time low last night, which says a lot coming after mishandling the coronavirus which has killed over 210,000 Americans, crippling the economy, mocking disabled reporters, and putting kids in cages, among so many other despicable acts. Last night, Donald Trump failed to disavow white supremacy. Even the most charitable interpretation of this exchange needs to note that Trump told the white supremacist group of Proud Boys to “stand back and stand by”, as if to await further instruction from the Commander-In-Chief himself. This comes at a moment of peril for many minority communities who are being openly discriminated against and killed by a broken, racist, unjust system, which they have faced throughout the country’s entire history, but that is just now getting national attention. Instead of giving Trump’s supporters, even the passive ones, the benefit of the doubt anymore, this needs to be recognized for what it is. There is a vile man who represents the worst of this country in command because he was voted for by the worst people (not a majority, either) that this country has to offer. It’s really that simple.

Today, my absentee ballot was accepted and I am proud to, again, be voting on the correct side of history. It’s going to be difficult to sit through another two presidential debates if they’re anything like the first last night. Hopefully Kamala Harris can bring fresh energy to the stage next week in her debate against Vice President Mike Pence. Until then, we continue to push forward against the fascist regime which is revealing itself in front of our eyes. Thanks for reading.

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Album Review: Shore - Fleet Foxes

Seattle based folk band Fleet Foxes suddenly released their newest album Shore on September 22nd to fittingly coincide with the autumnal equinox. The release came as a welcome surprise for fans who have been patiently waiting to see what would follow the group’s 2017 album Crack-Up. The newest offering demonstrates maturity, refinement, and a blend of all of the group’s previous sounds, which in all, completely exceeded my expectations. Lead singer Robin Pecknold and company simply can’t miss.

The album’s first track opens with vocals from Uwade Akhere and sets the tone of what’s to come in the tracklisting. “Wading in Waist-High Water” is a peaceful, end-of-summer reflection which presents a calm energy and atmosphere that the rest of the project finds comfort soaking in. “Sunblind” picks up the pace with the instantly recognizable vocals from Pecknold. This track beautifully pays homage to the artists who have passed away but who continue to inspire and influence Fleet Foxes as a group. “Can I Believe You” is a vulnerable and earnest song with a catchy and simple chorus. This track’s vocal backing is largely made up of Pecknold’s Instagram followers who sent in audio clips of their singing, which I found very interesting. The record opens strongly and just doesn’t stop impressing.

“Jara” pays homage to Chilean folk singer Victor Jara while also reflecting on the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, unpacking the injustice it has exposed. This track loops very rhythmically, continuing the faster pace for the group and different from previous albums Helplessness Blues or Crack-Up. “Featherweight” is lighter on its feet with very little drum backing and a gentle vocal refrain from Pecknold. This track focuses on the recognition of privilege, especially after being exposed to the many downfalls of society in the past year. Not only is this one of my favorite songs on the album, it’s one of my favorites in Fleet Foxes’ discography. “A Long Way Past the Past” doesn’t sound nearly as emotionally compelling as its lyrical content proves upon deeper analysis, as this track discusses living life attached to one’s past and memories. The nostalgic sound offered here adds another layer of meaning and complexity on a second listen. At this point in the tracklist, the band hasn’t missed.

And with “For A Week Or Two”, they don’t break that streak. This track reflects on becoming one with nature; escaping the hustle of urban life to once again feel a connection to the natural world. This beautiful track transitions perfectly into “Maestranza” which reflects on the communal struggle with recent events and on isolation itself. “Young Man’s Game” focuses on the naivety of childhood, specifically boyhood, with an upbeat tempo, even featuring kids singing as the track closes out. This is the first hiccup in the tracklist for me, because for some reason the lyrical content, instrumentation, and vocal delivery just don’t mesh perfectly with one another. This is redeemed by the following “I’m Not My Season”, however, which heartbreakingly and relatably reminds us that the circumstances we find ourselves in don’t and should never define us. I hear Josh Tillman’s vocal influence here, which is appropriate as he used to play drums for the group before releasing music under the name Father John Misty. This idea of us not being our experiences is so simple but so profound, and it is communicated beautifully by Pecknold.

“Quiet Air / Gioia” the the unsettling and ominous story of anticipating some great misfortune beyond one’s control. Pecknold has explained how climate change was on his mind when crafting this song, which eerily makes almost too much sense. “Going-to-the-Sun Road” is a beautiful but downtrodden recounting of wanderlust met with the acceptance of one’s eternal limitations. Just like most of the tracks on this album, this song builds gorgeously and culminates to create a perfectly painted picture for its listener.

“Thymia” is a short but wondrous track which explains the feeling of inner inspiration and compelling to one’s calling. It also transitions appropriately into the next song “Cradling Mother, Cradling Woman”, the album’s penultimate track which likens passion (music in Pecknold’s case) to a nurturing force which brings one internal sustenance. This track isn’t as sonically compelling as others on the album, but I enjoy it nonetheless. The project closes with the title track “Shore” which serves as a thematic epilogue, closing up the few loose ends the album has to offer. Once again, this song pays homage to inspirations and finds comfort in the uncertainty of what the future may have to offer - an excellent closure to a great album.

It will be fascinating to see how artists internalize the times we’re living through and how their experiences are reflected in their art. In Fleet Foxes’ case, the struggles being faced by all recently have been meditated to the point of being able to be consumed as harmonic, resonant, and relatable songs which combine the previous elements that popularized the band in the first place. While there are slight imperfections throughout, Fleet Foxes' Shore is still a must-listen and one of my favorite albums of the year so far. Thanks for reading.

Favorite tracks: “Wading in Waist-High Water”, “Sunblind”, “Can I Believe You”, “Jara”, “Featherweight”, “A Long Way Past the Past”, “For A Week Or Two”, “Maestranza”, “I’m Not My Season”, “Quiet Air / Gioia”, “Going-to-the-Sun Road”, “Thymia”, “Shore”

Score: 8/10

Hindsight In 2020

Many, including myself previously, have referred to the 2020 presidential election as the “most important election of our lifetime.” Recently, I’ve reflected on that sentiment and have come to the conclusion, while still recognizing the severity and importance of this year’s election, that the 2016 presidential election was actually the most important of our lifetime. In this post, I will explain how America’s course of history changed permanently four years ago, and why it’s imperative we redirect it back in the right direction in November.

There are many reasons why one can reasonably call the results of the 2016 election a fluke. Various predictive election models overwhelmingly expected Hillary Clinton to become the 45th president in the last election. Foreign meddling, voter suppression, Democratic overconfidence, and third party disruption culminated in the perfect storm which allowed a former reality TV show host to become the president of the United States. While many of Donald Trump’s supporters downplayed (and still do) the negative consequences of choosing an inexperienced candidate for this job, his opposition has consistently warned of the potential failings we are now facing, including the mishandling of the coronavirus, the permanence of racial injustice, a potential Conservative majority Supreme Court, and a crippled economy. The sheer incompetence and brazen attitude Trump has adopted has caused nearly irreparable damage in just four years — damage which could’ve easily been avoided if Clinton had instead been elected.

Hillary Clinton was easily one of the most qualified candidates for the presidency of the United States in the country’s history. Clinton would’ve kept in place Barack Obama’s pandemic response protocols, swiftly addressed and disavowed police brutality, and would’ve kept things moving in a more progressive direction generally, such as maintaining the Affordable Care Act and decriminalizing nonviolent crime, among other issues. Instead, Donald Trump became president and did nearly the opposite on all of those issues. While many say that Trump is simply a symptom of deeper, underlying ignorance, bigotry, xenophobia, and racism in the country which would’ve existed either way, I believe three consecutive Democratic presidential terms would’ve fully suppressed the regressive and vile ideologies which have now been platformed by Trump.

As a progressive, I still recognize that there is so much further this country needs to go. We need to systemically address racial injustice, offer healthcare free at the point of use under a universal single-payer system, address climate change, and constitutionally secure the safety of basic human rights including a woman’s right to choose and the LGBTQ+ community’s equal treatment. No systemic change takes place overnight in this country. The Women’s Suffrage Movement, Civil Rights Movement, and every other substantive movement in this country has been a slow but steady effort. The 2020 election has already started, and it’s imperative we don’t let the same apathy we saw previously compound with the obstacles we know we will be facing yet again. Electing Joe Biden as the next president will help turn things around, partially nullifying the damage caused by 2016’s election, which was the most important in our country’s history. Get out and vote.

Thanks for reading.

Album Review: From King To A GOD - Conway the Machine

Hip-hop collective Griselda is made up of hard-hitting rappers Westside Gunn, Benny the Butcher, Conway the Machine, and more. Under Eminem’s record label Shady Records, Griselda has consistently released relatively surface-level east coast hip-hop albums, none of which have blown me away. Of the core members of this group, Conway the Machine has been my favorite, but similarly, I hadn’t yet heard a cohesive and impactful album release from this artist up until this point. On From King To A GOD, however, Conway and his accompanying features offer an array of highly refined and mature tracks. At just under fifty minutes in length, this record packs a punch without overstepping on what it has to offer, and because of that, it is one of my favorite rap albums of 2020 so far.

Braggadocious drug lord bars only do so much for me. Without any introspection, song after song about this lifestyle can become dry rather quickly. On From King To A GOD, Conway the Machine certainly doesn’t abstain from sharing the details of his lifestyle, but he does so with an underlying grief and remorse from the impact this life has had on him. I see many similarities in this regard between this album and Freddie Gibbs and The Alchemist’s Alfredo from earlier this year. This self-reflection is enticing to me and luckily, it is abundant on this project.

“From King” serves as an adequate opening track which generally sets the tone for the following album, but I find it could have used some work to strengthen its initial attention-grabbing appeal. The production is solid on this track, but substantively it lacks a depth which is thankfully made up for as things move along. “Fear Of God (feat. DeJ Loaf)” is a head-banging and magnetic track which benefits from Conway’s incredibly writing and flows. The following “Lemon (feat. Method Man)” is a bit spooky, with an unsettling and stripped back instrumental. Method Man’s feature is incredibly well-placed, as he and Conway play off of one another wonderfully. Lines like “Ain’t got to tell you I’m dope, just stick the needle in” are simply cool. “Dough & Damani” is a 5 minute track backed by a simple drum and piano instrumental which doesn’t overstay its welcome due to a smooth midway beat switch and highly entertaining lyrical content.

“Juvenile Hell (feat. Flee Lord, Havoc & Lloyd Banks)” features pretty surface level coke bars from its accompanying artists, but it sounds so good that I just don’t mind this traditional Griselda sound. “Words From Shay (Interlude)” continues a recent trend of voicemail testimonials from contemporaries praising one’s work. This interlude does serve as a necessary thematic break, however, since from here on out each track is more substantive than those before it. “Front Lines” features another simplistic instrumental which provides the perfect backdrop for Conway to drop one of the best verses on the entire project. Without mincing any words, Conway reflects on the police brutality against Black people which has continually plagued this country for centuries. “Anza (feat. Armani Caesar)” initially comes off as a typical misogynistic rap track, which I’m not too much of a fan of, until Armani Caesar’s feature redeems the song. The production is nice here, but the substance is disappointing to some degree until the feature comes along.

“Seen Everything But Jesus (feat. Freddie Gibbs)” is one of my favorite tracks on the album, bringing the comparisons I drew earlier to life through a killer collaboration. Instead of featuring overly confident lyricism, this track features both Conway and Gibbs lamenting the pitfalls of the lifestyles they’ve chosen for themselves. “Words From Shay (Interlude 2)” is another interlude, which is fine, but I’m not sure it was entirely necessary for the flow of the tracklist. “Spurs 3 (feat. Benny The Butcher & Westside Gunn”) features Griselda in all of their glory, spitting bar after bar over a funky and chaotic instrumental backing. “Forever Droppin Tears (feat. El Camino)” clocks in at just under eight minutes and provides an emotional fragility rare in the genre. Remorseful instead of idealistic, this song depicts the grim realities of loss due to a sometimes dangerous lifestyle.

The penultimate track “Jesus Khrysis” is short but packed full of dense lyricism. “Lyrics written in braille, you gotta feel it to understand” is one of my favorite bars on the project due to its creativity. “Nothin Less” is a solid closer to wrap up all of the themes of the album, particularly the rest in peace shoutouts to close things out.

Overall, I was somewhat (pleasantly) surprised by the quality of this album. Conway the Machine differentiates himself from his colleagues with this record, which is a massive step up in production, sound, and lyrical content from the projects he has released previously. I’m excited to see where he and Griselda go from here. I hope this is a sign of good things to come.

Favorite tracks: “Fear Of God (feat. DeJ Loaf)”, “Lemon (feat. Method Man)”, “Dough & Damani”, “Juvenile Hell (feat. Flee Lord, Havoc & Lloyd Banks)”, “Front Lines”, “Seen Everything But Jesus (feat. Freddie Gibbs), “Spurs 3 (feat. Benny The Butcher & Westside Gunn)”, “Forever Droppin Tears (feat. El Camino)”, “Jesus Khrysis”, “Nothin Less”

SCORE: 7/10